WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF THE US LEAVES NATO?
Europe is facing a harsh new reality where it may not be able to count on the U.S. for security in the near future. This stems from President Donald Trump’s skepticism toward NATO, his praise for Putin, and his threats to withhold defense from non-paying allies. Leaders are questioning America’s reliability during a time in which Europe is facing its biggest war since the 1940s, but despite some rhetoric, NATO isn’t powerless without the United States. So, what would happen if the U.S. leaves NATO? Let's dive into some of the risks America might face.
How Much Does the US Contribute to NATO?
Despite recent reports that the United States contributed 66% of NATO’s budget, the actual figures are closer to 16%, similar to those of Germany.
Therefore, the idea that the US leaving NATO is a massive loss, while notable, may not be the blow some believe it could be.
There are realistic alternatives for Europe to not only pick up the slack but also purchase weapons and equipment using alternative means.
“Europe alone (still has) a capacity to muster the resources it would need to defend itself, it’s just a question of whether (it is) willing to,” said Ben Schreer, who works as the Europe executive director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).
The contributions of the U.S. military are important, but there’s more at play here, and just because we would leave, it doesn’t mean Europe would be down and out.
Furthermore, there are a lot of disadvantages for the United States, including the following:
Alternative Alliances
Contributing weapons and troops to NATO is at the heart of the military alliance’s objectives for the U.S.; however, it’s also a deterrent for other global powers from filling the role.
While it’s unlikely someone relative to the power of the United States would step up, other countries collectively might.
This means that instead of buying American weapons, NATO would likely seek other options.
The same goes for treaty negotiations, military exercises, and generally just staying in the loop—the U.S. might find itself on the outside looking in if it leaves NATO.
Fewer Intel Resources
Speaking of being outside of the loop, America will likely find itself receiving less intel involving Europe.
Not only does this put Americans at greater risk, but it hinders the safety of Europeans as well.
Furthermore, over 1.1 million American expats live in Europe, making the continent the second-most popular choice among the population.
Throw in the fact that Americans visit Europe more than most other regions abroad, and it’s clear to see why having the right intel to stop potential attacks is vital to American interests.
Less Help Fighting Terrorism
Having access to less intel means having a harder go of it when it’s time to stop terrorism, both in Europe and elsewhere.
Furthermore, it’s unclear how our European allies might react if the U.S. left NATO when it comes to fighting terrorists in other regions, including Africa, Asia, and the Middle East.
Specifically, the loss of access to the Terrorism Intelligence Cell established at NATO headquarters would directly hinder counterterrorism efforts around the globe.
Increased Nuclear and Military Threats
Let’s get the obvious out of the way: NATO exists to keep the Kremlin in check.
Without the alliance, many fear that expansionist policies could throw Europe into war (more than it already is) and lead to a potential nuclear war if things escalate.
Having the United States leave NATO could be a devastating blow to our nation’s nuclear defense.
Furthermore, joint military exercises, such as Steadfast Defender, can occur well over a hundred times per year and help nations learn to operate effectively together.
These training opportunities could look very different without the U.S. in NATO, leading to operational issues in the future should a massive conflict arise.
With well over 60,000 U.S. troops stationed in Europe to help support NATO operations, our nation also puts its regional influence at risk as bases and personnel would need a new purpose.
When Did the US Join NATO?
The attack on Pearl Harbor brought the United States into the world stage, ending its isolationist approach, which would continue due to conditions following World War II.
This is why on July 25, 1949, President Harry S. Truman signed the Instrument of Accession, beginning NATO with the U.S. as a founding member.
Europe and the world didn’t want to enter a war again, particularly one involving nuclear weapons, and the fear of an attack from the Soviet Union would make our nation’s first peacetime military alliance a reality.
From helping keep communism out of Europe to boosting economic recovery for those involved, NATO has been a part of our nation’s global strategy profoundly.
The decision by the United States to join NATO is bigger than simple politics or geopolitical relations, it’s a commitment formed to help our nation and allies keep the peace.
If the US leaves NATO, there will be growing pangs at best and a new era of uncertainty. One where many experts fear American interests aren’t nearly as high on the pecking order.
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