RUSSIAN MISSILES IN UKRAINE ARE HITTING DECOYS THANKS TO DRONE CONFUSION
Deception is a natural part of warfare. Each side involved in a conflict is going to want to keep their cards close to their chest and work to get the upper hand. Russian missiles in Ukraine have been fooled as of late, as Ukrainian forces are using decoy artillery to draw fire. The goal is both to protect critical military sites in use as well as work to deplete Russia’s missile supply. More like this:The Ghost Army WW2’s Greatest Art Piece Saved Lives
Decoys Attracting Russian Missiles in Ukraine
Ukraine is tricking Russia into wasting bombs to destroy decoy "artillery," and so far, it seems to be working. The dummy HIMARS are made of wood and have attracted the fire of Russian missiles in Ukraine. Drones can’t tell them apart from the real thing. This is wonderful news, as drones from Russian forces in the Black Sea are used to show the location of Ukrainian missile sites. At least 10 Kalibr cruise missiles have been drawn to the decoys over the first few weeks of using these tactics. Other threats still remain, as Russian ballistic missile attacks in Ukraine and Russian hypersonic missiles in Ukraine can still land devastating blows. Still, anything that can reduce the strikes to an already strong but meager fighting force is welcomed. Russians are also suspected of overstating the amount of HIMARS they’ve hit. This is in part because military experts believe they, themselves, may not know. "If the Russians think they hit a HIMARS, they will claim they hit a HIMARS. Russian forces very well may be overstating their battle damage assessments after hitting HIMAR decoys," said George Barros, a military researcher for the Institute for the Study of War.
How Many Missiles Has Russia Fired at Ukraine?
The most recent reports show that after five months of fighting, Russia has fired over 3,650 missiles into Ukraine. But that was the total at the beginning of August. Given the same rate, it’s not unrealistic that there have been as many as 4,200+ Russian missiles in Ukraine. These figures may also be convoluted, as Russia's been using decoy missiles to help real missiles get through. The use of decoy missiles from Russian forces surprised experts at the beginning of the invasion, but the outcome would help Russia get more strikes through, as intercepting measures in place by Ukraine would miss their real targets in lieu of dummy missiles.
Could Delays in Aid Be a Factor?
Getting weapons into the country of Ukraine has been a challenge from the jump. Reports such as "Ukraine Won't Get Key Weapons From $1 Billion Aid For Months" by Time magazine is one of many that show delays from places such as the U.S., Germany, and Slovenia. Recently, some concerns over ammunition supplies running low in the U.S. have shone a spotlight on the difficulties in providing weaponry for Ukrainians. There's also been a call to lean on the defense industry rather than stockpiles held by countries to meet the needs of the war. This, of course, will only add to the delays, as manufacturers, in this case, Lockheed Martin, will have to fulfill orders before aid can be sent. Replacing an M142 HIMARS costs $3.5 million to $3.8 million per unit. Having a Russian missile in Ukraine hit a decoy artillery site can not only mitigate delays but help save crucial funds being used to aid the country.
Why Doesn’t Ukraine Shoot Missiles Into Russia?
The complex geopolitical reasons for Ukraine not shooting missiles into Russia are likely too numerous to list. But we can explore some of the more obvious reasons Ukraine has avoided shooting missiles inside Russian soil. For starters, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has remained adamant in his attempts to separate the countries, stating that he has no interest in counterstrikes or invading Russia. President Zelenskyy has maintained the stance that the aid received will be used for defending their home, not invading. This goes along with the idea that launching such strikes would invoke an even more deadly response. Many military experts believe that Russia is more than capable of releasing an even stronger attack than we’ve seen so far. Launching such an attack on Russian soil would also mean using Ukraine’s limited supply of drones, air support, and missiles. The logistics of such strikes may simply be beyond realistic at this point. It could also be difficult to receive as much aid from other countries. As of now, there's only one aggressor who's helping Ukraine gain support from many other nations in the international community. So far, while the official, unofficial aid that has come from Russia’s many frenemies has sparked negative backlash, it hasn’t sparked a war. Russia attacking a member of NATO that is supplying such weapons would quite literally spark World War III. The Russian missiles in Ukraine far outweigh the attacks from Ukrainian forces, and it may stay like this unless things escalate to much more uncomfortable levels. Still, the innovative use of decoy HIMARS is just the latest example of ingenuity that continues to frustrate Russian forces. Suggested read:We Have a Problem: Giving Weapons to Ukraine Depleted Our Ammo
Image: Anastasia Vlasova for The Washington Post