WAR IN PANAMA? A CLOSER LOOK AT TRUMP’S POSSIBLE MILITARY ACTIONS IN CENTRAL AMERICA

It wasn’t too long ago that the thought of going to war with Panama was not a talking point, yet, President Donald Trump’s rhetoric early into his second term is changing this narrative. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s trip to the Central American country was an effort to use diplomacy to help with rising tensions, establish deals friendly to the United States, and stifle a perceived increase of influence by China.

Can Trump Avoid War With Panama Over Its Canal?
In Panama, politicians are preparing for either war with the U.S. or difficult diplomacy, due to rising tensions between the two nations over the usage and payments involving the Panama Canal.
Invading Panama would be an extreme step from the United States but the use of military force is not off of the table, despite both sides still working to make a deal happen.
The ongoing dialogue is working to reinforce U.S. dominance while limiting China’s influence without challenging Panama’s control of the canal.
However, Trump remains aggressive, which could prove difficult to overcome, even as Rubio’s visit aimed to push things towards diplomacy instead of the use of military force.
Possible Retaliation for War
Former Panamanian President Ernesto Pérez Balladares understands that if the U.S. decides to invade the nation over issues related to the canal, the results would be terrible for everyone involved.
“I think there will be many, many casualties on our side and international condemnation of the U.S.,” said Balladares.
Those tied to the political world in Panama believe that not only is Trump overstepping but that the United Nations could get involved and retaliations could be in order.
Specifically, if push comes to shove, Panama could open up choke points for South American immigrants headed to the United States.
Fees and Military Influence
One of the areas both the United States and Panama must figure out is transit fees for using the canal. Specifically, the fees paid by the U.S. for military vessels to pass through.
As it stands, ships belonging to the U.S. Navy and Coast Guard pay a fee to maneuver through the Panama Canal. Trump wants to change this.
President Trump is looking not only to save on costs but also aims to increase the presence of the U.S. military in the region as he claims China is flexing its muscle in the region.

Trump, China, and Military Influence in Panama
Despite the U.S. claiming China’s influence in the region, many Panamanians aren’t buying it.
Furthermore, officials in Panama maintain that the canal’s transit fees are uniform for everyone, as defined by legislation.
These points of contention between the two nations are large parts of why we are where we are, and why Panama can’t afford to do anything but prepare for the possibility of the worst.
The Central American country even conducted audits on Chinese-operated ports, finding no real threats or foul play.
This is far from the first time the United States has long objected to China’s presence in the Panama Canal, including in the 1990s, and previously blocked a Chinese embassy project that would have put Asia's superpower on full display right off of the important waterway.
Panama has since slowed Chinese infrastructure deals feeling pressure from the U.S. and despite these actions, pressure continues to grow.
Tensions might be high but there is still hope that the Trump administration can use diplomacy instead of military action so that all parties come to a favorable agreement involving the Panama Canal.
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